nfl 2009 <> the new season is upon us

the "mean nothing" games are done ... injuries were kept to a minimum ... tom brady remembered how to play the game ... optimism abounds across new england ... the new england patriots will open their 2009 season tonite at gillette stadium against the buffalo bills

what's interesting to me on the eve of a new season is how many really believe this edition of the new england patriots can accomplish what the 2007 team fell short of ... 19-0 ... my response ... not a chance

my predictions ... the patriots should win their opener against buffalo ... they will then lose 2 of the next 3 games ... the jets (9/20) in ny, atlanta (9/27) and baltimore (10/4) at gillette ... after that stretch the patriots will lose just 2 more games ... at indy (11/15) and at new orleans (11/30) ... new england will finish the season 12-4, win the afc east and be the #3 seed in the afc playoffs (following pittsburgh and san diego) ... in the end, pittsburgh will be the afc and super bowl champions

has my foxboro kool-aid been sitting in gg's refrigerator too long ... has it soured ... not so much ... rather foxboro kool-aid has always given me strength to look at the realities ... to ignore the poison pens of those who never played the game ... and to laugh at the mindless thoughts of the fellowship of the miserable ... the realities of the 2009 edition of the new england patriots look like this

the starting offense that put up record yardage and scoring numbers during the 2007 regular season ... and then lost the biggest game of their season ... returns pretty much intact ... 8 of 2007's 11 starters will return tonite ... these starters are now 2 years older ... the 3 new 1st teamers will all be older than their predecessor ... and the leader of the offense hasnt played a game that counted in 12 months ... the offensive starting lineup on opening night will look like this

• 72 ot matt light (9 years / 31 years old)
• 70 og logan mankins (5 years / 27 years old)
• 67 oc dan koppen (7 years / 30 years old)
• 61 og stephen neal (8 years / 33 years old)
• 77 ot nick kaczur (5 years / 30 years old)
• 12 qb tom brady (10 years / 32 years old)
• 21 rb fred taylor (12 years / 33 years old) #
• 81 wr randy moss (12 years / 32 years old
• 83 wr wes welker (6 years / 28 years old)
• 13 wr joey galloway (15 years / 39 years old) #
• 86 te chris baker (8 years / 29 years old) #

# indicates position started by another player in 2007

defensively this is very much a team in transition ... the question that will be answered this season is just how far along the patriots are in their youth movement ... gone from the defense are lb mike vrabel (traded to kansas city), s rodney harrison (retired/moved to nbc), cb ellis hobbs (traded to philadelphia), lb tedy bruschi (retired/moved to espn) and dt richard seymour (traded to oakland) ... that's 10 super bowl rings and the heart of clubhouse leadership ... and just a bit of aging ... left are 3 veteran studs, a 2nd year defensive rookie of the year and superstar in the making, a couple safeties with promise, a group of untested kids and a bunch of jags

another defensive transition we think is underway ... after 8 years of the 3-4 defensive formation ... and a couple years of playing with morphing back and forth between 3-4 and 4-3 ... we have believed the 4-3 would be the patriots base defense this season ... but tonite's starting lineup sure doesn't support this belief ... what it does say is we really just don't know enough about this defense to have an abundence of confidence it is anything more or less than average ... opening night defensive starters will be

• 97 dl jarvis green (8 years / 30 years old)
• 75 dl vince wilfork (6 years / 27 years old)
• 94 dl ty warren (7 years / 28 years old)
• 96 lb adalius thomas (10 years / 32 years old)
• 51 lb jerod mayo (2 years / 23 years old)
• 59 lb gary guyton (2 years / 23 years old)
• 95 lb tully banta-cain (7 years / 29 years old)
• 36 ss james sanders (5 years / 25 years old)
• 31 fs brandon merriweather (3 years / 25 years old)
• 24 cb jonathan wilhite (2 years / 25 years old)
• 23 cb leigh bodden (7 years / 28 years old)

transition on defense is not the only change that could impact the performance of this year's new england patriots ... gone are longtime vice president of player personnel scott pioli <> offensive coorinator/quarterbacks coach josh mc daniels <> tight ends coach pete mangurian <> special assistant/secondary coach and former head coach dom capers <> longtime special teams coach brad seely

now on board are nick casario as director of player personnel <> veteran executive floyd reese as senior advisor <> former wide receivers coach bill o'brien as quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator in training <> former coaching assistant josh boyer as defensive backs coach <> former coaching assistant shane waldron as tight ends coach <> from minnesota, chad o'shea as wide receivers coach <> and from denver, veteran scott o'brien as special teams coach

there remains continuity at the defensive coordinator's position ... dean pees returns for a 4th season since taking over for manjudas back in 2006 ... unfortunately pees has yet to produce a standout defensive unit