nfl 2009 <> the new season is upon us

the "mean nothing" games are done ... injuries were kept to a minimum ... tom brady remembered how to play the game ... optimism abounds across new england ... the new england patriots will open their 2009 season tonite at gillette stadium against the buffalo bills

what's interesting to me on the eve of a new season is how many really believe this edition of the new england patriots can accomplish what the 2007 team fell short of ... 19-0 ... my response ... not a chance

my predictions ... the patriots should win their opener against buffalo ... they will then lose 2 of the next 3 games ... the jets (9/20) in ny, atlanta (9/27) and baltimore (10/4) at gillette ... after that stretch the patriots will lose just 2 more games ... at indy (11/15) and at new orleans (11/30) ... new england will finish the season 12-4, win the afc east and be the #3 seed in the afc playoffs (following pittsburgh and san diego) ... in the end, pittsburgh will be the afc and super bowl champions

has my foxboro kool-aid been sitting in gg's refrigerator too long ... has it soured ... not so much ... rather foxboro kool-aid has always given me strength to look at the realities ... to ignore the poison pens of those who never played the game ... and to laugh at the mindless thoughts of the fellowship of the miserable ... the realities of the 2009 edition of the new england patriots look like this

the starting offense that put up record yardage and scoring numbers during the 2007 regular season ... and then lost the biggest game of their season ... returns pretty much intact ... 8 of 2007's 11 starters will return tonite ... these starters are now 2 years older ... the 3 new 1st teamers will all be older than their predecessor ... and the leader of the offense hasnt played a game that counted in 12 months ... the offensive starting lineup on opening night will look like this

• 72 ot matt light (9 years / 31 years old)
• 70 og logan mankins (5 years / 27 years old)
• 67 oc dan koppen (7 years / 30 years old)
• 61 og stephen neal (8 years / 33 years old)
• 77 ot nick kaczur (5 years / 30 years old)
• 12 qb tom brady (10 years / 32 years old)
• 21 rb fred taylor (12 years / 33 years old) #
• 81 wr randy moss (12 years / 32 years old
• 83 wr wes welker (6 years / 28 years old)
• 13 wr joey galloway (15 years / 39 years old) #
• 86 te chris baker (8 years / 29 years old) #

# indicates position started by another player in 2007

defensively this is very much a team in transition ... the question that will be answered this season is just how far along the patriots are in their youth movement ... gone from the defense are lb mike vrabel (traded to kansas city), s rodney harrison (retired/moved to nbc), cb ellis hobbs (traded to philadelphia), lb tedy bruschi (retired/moved to espn) and dt richard seymour (traded to oakland) ... that's 10 super bowl rings and the heart of clubhouse leadership ... and just a bit of aging ... left are 3 veteran studs, a 2nd year defensive rookie of the year and superstar in the making, a couple safeties with promise, a group of untested kids and a bunch of jags

another defensive transition we think is underway ... after 8 years of the 3-4 defensive formation ... and a couple years of playing with morphing back and forth between 3-4 and 4-3 ... we have believed the 4-3 would be the patriots base defense this season ... but tonite's starting lineup sure doesn't support this belief ... what it does say is we really just don't know enough about this defense to have an abundence of confidence it is anything more or less than average ... opening night defensive starters will be

• 97 dl jarvis green (8 years / 30 years old)
• 75 dl vince wilfork (6 years / 27 years old)
• 94 dl ty warren (7 years / 28 years old)
• 96 lb adalius thomas (10 years / 32 years old)
• 51 lb jerod mayo (2 years / 23 years old)
• 59 lb gary guyton (2 years / 23 years old)
• 95 lb tully banta-cain (7 years / 29 years old)
• 36 ss james sanders (5 years / 25 years old)
• 31 fs brandon merriweather (3 years / 25 years old)
• 24 cb jonathan wilhite (2 years / 25 years old)
• 23 cb leigh bodden (7 years / 28 years old)

transition on defense is not the only change that could impact the performance of this year's new england patriots ... gone are longtime vice president of player personnel scott pioli <> offensive coorinator/quarterbacks coach josh mc daniels <> tight ends coach pete mangurian <> special assistant/secondary coach and former head coach dom capers <> longtime special teams coach brad seely

now on board are nick casario as director of player personnel <> veteran executive floyd reese as senior advisor <> former wide receivers coach bill o'brien as quarterbacks coach/offensive coordinator in training <> former coaching assistant josh boyer as defensive backs coach <> former coaching assistant shane waldron as tight ends coach <> from minnesota, chad o'shea as wide receivers coach <> and from denver, veteran scott o'brien as special teams coach

there remains continuity at the defensive coordinator's position ... dean pees returns for a 4th season since taking over for manjudas back in 2006 ... unfortunately pees has yet to produce a standout defensive unit

nascar 2009 <> before and after week #26

the first portion of the the 2009 nascar season is in the books ... the regular season is done ... the big winners were mark martin, tony stewart and jeff gordan ... big losers would be kyle busch, matt kenseth and dale earnhardt, jr ... now it is on to new hampshire and the chase for a championship ... should be an awesome 10 weeks coming up

pool standings AFTER WEEK #26 <> chevy rock & roll 400 at richmond

• floyd -- 3461 points / 2 winners
• jim -- 3370 (-91) / 4 winners
• tom *-- 3330 (-131) / 3 winners
• jason -- 3186 (-275) / 5 winners
• robin* -- 3057 (-404) / 3 winners
• rich -- 2509 (-952) / 1 winner
• kevin -- 2478 (-983)

*denotes rookie competitor


pool picks FOR WEEK #26 <> chevy rock & roll 400 at richmond (for most points <> for race win)

• floyd -- brad keselowski (09) <> jimmie johnson (48)
• jim -- david stremme (12) <> denny hamlin (11)
• tom -- marcos ambrose (47) <> denny hamlin (11)
• jason -- brad keselowski (09) <> kyle busch (18)
• robin -- juan pablo montoya (42) <> jimmie johnson (48)
• rich -- jeff gordon (24) <> kevin harvick (29)
• kevin -- jeff gordon (24) <> kevin harvick (29)

a genius at work again

the genius that is bill belichick was in full bloom on sunday when he stunned the football world by trading his veteran starting defensive left end/tackle to the oakland raiders for the raiders #1 pick in the 2011 college player draft ... i fully understand some will suggest i am drunk on the foxboro kool-aid ... if i am, it is only because foxboro kool-aid has been so refreshing and fulfilling the last 8 years

ok, i'll concede ... short term, the trade adds to the many questions about the strength of this year's defense ... vrabs is gone to kc ... rodney to nbc ... tedy to espn ... and now the big sea to oakland ... that's alot of rings ... that's alot of leadership ... gone ... quickly ... clearly the defense is being retooled around vince wilfork, ty warren and jerod mayo ... three days ago the defensive line unit was a known strength ... now there will be questions about jarvis green, derrick burgess, ron brace (r) and myron prior (r)

longer term, this trade is grand larceny ... this trade is just one more example of why many say bill belichick is often 3 steps ahead of everyone else ... kinda like a 4th round pick to oakland for randy moss

the facts

• richard seymour was a first round draft pick (6th overall) of the new england patriots in 2001
• 8 years a starting defensive end/tackle for the patriots
• 3 times a super bowl champion (xxxvi, xxxviii and xxxix)
• 5 times selected to the pro bowl (2002, 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006)
• in the last of a 3 year, $30 million contract
• a $3.65 million salary cap hit to the patriots in 2009
• a free agent at the end of the 2009 season if not resigned or franchised by new england
• the patriots would have received a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2010 draft if/when seymour signed with another team as a free agent
• traded to oakland for the raiders #1 pick in the 2011 draft

the variables

• the patriots were not going to resign or franchise (@ $12 million) seymour after the 2009 season ... allegedly richard requested a new deal at the beginning of training camp ... and the patriots said no thanks
• the oakland raiders have sucked as a football tean since early in the decade ... and with owner al davis in charge of the franchise and quarterback jamarcus russell leading the team's offense ... the raiders will probably still suck in 2010 ... meaning their 2011 1st round draft pick should be top 10
• the nfl should have in place a new collective bargaining agreement which would govern the 2011 draft ... this new agreement may well include a rookie salary cap making a top 10 draft pick far more valuable than it is today with out of control rookie salaries

what are the experts saying

mike lombardi of national football post has this to say

christopher price of weei.com wrote this

cold, hard football facts says this

more to come

nascar 2009 <> before and after week #25

pool standings AFTER WEEK #25 <> pep boys auto 500 at atlanta

• floyd -- 3412 points / 2 winners
• jim -- 3275 (-137) / 3 winners
• tom *-- 3223 (-189) / 2 winners
• jason -- 3137 (-275) / 5 winners
• robin* -- 2951 (-461) / 3 winners
• rich -- 2509 (-903) / 1 winner
• kevin -- 2437 (-1104)

*denotes rookie competitor

pool picks FOR WEEK #25 <> pep boys auto 500 at atlanta (for most points <> for race win)

• floyd -- kyle busch (18) <> jeff gordon (24)
• jim -- martin truax, jr (1) <> kyle busch (18)
• tom -- david ragan (6) <> jimmie johnson (48)
• jason -- martin truax, jr (1) <> tony stewart (14)
• robin -- martin truax, jr (1) <> dale earnhardt, jr (88)
• rich -- martin truax, jr (1) <> kyle busch (18)
• kevin -- kyle busch (18) <> dale earnhardt, jr (88)

nascar 2009 <> after week #24

pool standings AFTER WEEK #24 <> sharpie 500 at bristol

• floyd -- 3283 points / 2 winners
• jim -- 3180 (-103) / 3 winners
• tom *-- 3159 (-124) / 2 winners
• jason -- 3042 (-241) / 5 winners
• robin* -- 2856 (-427) / 3 winners
• rich -- 2509 (-774) / 1 winner
• kevin -- 2308 (-975)

*denotes rookie competitor

nascar 2009 <> for week #24

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just 3 more races until nascar's chase for the sprint cup begins here in nh at loudon ... officially or not, tony stewart (1), jeff gordon (2) and jimmie johnson (3) and their hendricks horsepower will race for a championship ... as of now, ryan newman (9), greg biffle (10), matt kenseth (11) and mark martin (12) are in the top 12 but very much on a bubble ... sitting just outside the top 12 are brian vickers (13), clint bowyer (14) and kyle busch (15) ... if i had choices ... mark martin would make the chase ... biffle and kenseth would fall out of the top 12 ... and be replaced by brian vickers and kyle busch ... but instead of me choosing the top 12 ... nascar will run the races at bristol tonite ... atlanta on sunday of labor day weekend (9/6) after a off week ... and richmond 3 weeks from tonite (9/12) ... to decide the 12 drivers who will chase for the 2009 championship

closer to home ... after richmond we will reset our pool for the chase for $$$ ... if our reset were to occur today ... it would look like this

• 1 floyd -- 120 points (100 for 1st place + 20 for winners picked)
• 1 jim -- 120 (90+30)
• 1 jason -- 120 (70+50)
• 4 tom -- 90 (80+10)
• 4 robin -- 90 (60+30)
• 6 rich -- 60 (50+10)
• 7 kevin -- 40 (40+0)

congratulations to brad keselowski ... keso has put jr motorsports on the nationwide circuit map ... dale, jr gave brad an opportunity ... rick hendricks gave brad the best engines ... brad has gone head to head with the sprint guys on the nationwide circuit and won races ... and he won at taladega on the big stage earlier this year ... for his efforts it sure looks like brad keselowski will drive roger penske's #12 car in 2010 ... replacing david stremme on the sprint cup circuit ... in pre-race interviews last night ... brad smoothly deflected all questions about contracts and next year ... based on the big grins i saw ... i'm guessing the paperwork is done but for signatures

pool picks FOR WEEK #24 <> sharpie 500 at bristol (for most points <> for race win)

• floyd -- matt kenseth (17) <> carl edwards (99)
• jim -- david ragan (6) <> greg biffle (16)
• tom -- casey mears (07) <> kyle busch (18)
• jason -- jeff burton (31) <> tony stewart (14)
• robin -- clint bowyer (33) <> mark martin (5)
• rich -- jeff burton (31) <> tony stewart (14)
• kevin -- greg biffle (16) <> jimmie johnson (48)

nascar 2009 <> after week #23

following-up on his 2nd place finish in yesterday's nationwide race ... brian vickers wins the big boys race at michigan ... congrats to brian ... it's been a long time coming ... and thank you ... before today my single memory of brian vickers was of your ugly victory at taladega back in '06 ... back when you were driving rick hendrick's beloved #25 ... back when you wiped out both teammate jimmie johnson and dale, jr just before you crossed the finish line ... thank you for giving me a new memory ... a better memory ... i'm thinking brian vickers was a winner twice today ... watch finish ... watch post race interview

pool standings AFTER WEEK #23 <> carfax 400 at michigan

• floyd -- 3149 points / 2 winners
• jim -- 3059 (-90) / 3 winners
• tom *-- 3025 (-124) / 1 winner
• jason -- 2940 (-209) / 5 winners
• robin* -- 2746 (-403) / 3 winners
• rich -- 2407 (-742) / 1 winner
• kevin -- 2251 (-898)

*denotes rookie competitor

nascar 2009 <> for week #23

impressive finish to today's nationwide race at michigan ... watch ... if rick hendrick doesn't soon find a way to put brad keselowski in a sprint cup car full time in 2010 ... someone else will ... keselowski qualified 12th for tomorrow's race ... after the impressive finish came a less than impressive confrontation ... watch ... brian vickers said "i'm sorry, i forgot it was the kyle busch show" ... it wasn't until kyle made it so ... when i was a kid we called them "sore losers" ... today it's probably more correct to say kyle seems not to handle "not winning" well

and, oh by the way ... when brian vickers says he didn't know the 88 was closing fast in the high line ... the only way he is going to know about keselowski is if his spotter or crew chief tells him

pool picks FOR WEEK #23 <> carfax 400 at michigan (for most points <> for race win)

• floyd -- martin truax (1) <> tony stewart (14)
• tom -- brad keselowski (25) <> jimmie johnson (48)
• jim -- joey logano (20) <> juan pablo montoya (42)
• jason -- jamie mcmurray (26) <> tony stewart (14)
• robin -- jamie mcmurray (26) <> jimmie johnson (48)
• rich -- martin truax (1) <> tony stewart (14)
• kevin -- abstained <> abstained
  

one down <> three to go

meaningless breeding ground for injury preseason game #1 is seemingly safely in the books ... the patriots went down to philly and came away with an "interesting" 27-25 win ... it would have been "interesting" even if the eagles had won 27-25 ... so what did i learn

after 9 seasons of a base 3-4 defense ... what we saw almost exclusively last night was a base 4-3 defense ... the current roster of linebackers is a vulnerability ... the middle linebacker is a star in the making ... and there is a lot of big, tall talent along the defensive line ... this mix seems a much better fit for the 4-3 than the 3-4

bernard pollard shreaded tom brady's knee ... tom brady had reconstructive knee surgery ... tom brady had been absent from football for 11 months ... the super bowl mvp married a super model and is expecting a super child ... apparently one of those crazy dream sequences ... except for the part about wife and expecting ... tom brady played 4 series/24 snaps ... his production <> 10/15 <> 100 yards <> 2 td <>1 int ... randy caught 3 for 54 yards with the long being 35 ... brady/moss would have hooked up for a longer 46 yarder if asante hadnt grabbed randy's arm at the last minute ... pass interferance got the yards ... touchdown passes were to a guy who wasnt even a part of the record breaking 2007 offense ... welcome chris baker "the touchdown maker" ... bottom line is tom brady looked excellent considering it really wasn't a dream sequence ... and he still appears to have a favorite receiver ... the open receiver

speaking of open receivers ... who the devil is julian edelman ... 7th round (232 overall) draft pick from kent state ... played the slot receiver with the first team ... wes welker didnt dress for this one ... endelman catches a game high 5 for 37 yards ... looked like the slot machine's all grown up love child ... oh yeah, endelman also returned a punt 75 yards for a td

its possible the patriots have found their safety net in case of injury or lapse into incompetence to matt light ... 4th of 4 second rounders sebastian vollmer played exclusively on the left side ... the protector of tom brady's backside

laurence maroney ... still indecisive ... still running east/west ... anyone still not understanding why teammates filled maroney's locker with diapers back in '07 ... if laurence maroney doesnt learn to run downhill soon ... he will spend his 4th and last year as a patriot on the sideline buried behind sammy morris, fred taylor, kevin faulk and benjarvis green-ellis

secondary ... impressive overall ... performances give us hope this group will be much improved over last year ... second year cb jonathan wilhite <> 2nd round rookies safety patrick chung and cb darius butler <> free agent signee cb leigh bodden <> emerging star safety brandon meriweather ... all got significant playing time ... free agent signee cb shawn springs did not dress for this one

linebackers ... this may well be the weakest, least impressive collection of linebackers of the belichick era ... beyond outside lb adalius thomas and 2nd year inside lb jerod mayo ... the linebacking group is a bunch of jags <> tedy bruschi <> pierre woods <> gary guyton <> shawn crable <> paris lenon ... ugh ... in the event of injury, replacing either a.d. or mayo from this group is a scary thought... mayo wore the miked helmet calling defensive signals ... that job was handled last season by mr vrabel

back-up quarterback ... a lot is being made of the fact andrew walter followed tfb rather than heir apparent to matt cassel's spot on the sideline kevin o'connell ... there may be some truth to the notion the move was some sort of wake-up call to o'connell ... but the bottom line is belichick needs to find out quick if walter has the potential to play in the partiots system ... and the best way to evaluate is live game action ... two thoughts on his performance ... he's been in new england 10 days and he wasnt playing with the same weapons brady was ... there was no julian endelman

tight ends ... competition in practice rumored to be strong ... ben watson didnt dress ... chris baker caught the 2 brady td passes ... david thomas lined up at fullback a number of times ... alex smith and tyson devree were not memorable ... it is possible the team will carry 4 te's with no fullback on the roster

matt cassel

the new football season begins tonite in new england ... but reality is we are about to be treated to 4 weeks of blah blah blah preseason football ... lets just hope the players stay healthy through these meaningless games

im going to take some of this preseason time to comment about a couple offseason issues ... first up, MATT CASSEL

just 7 minutes into the patriots 2008 season ... kansas city chiefs safety bernard pollard lunges at tom brady's left knee ... shreading brady's acl and mcl ... ending tom brady's season before it ever gets started ... enter brady's back-up ... matt cassel ... 4 years a back-up to heisman trophy winners carson palmer and matt leinart at usc ... in his 4th year as back-up to tom brady (and at times former heisman trophy winners doug flutie and vinny testaverde) with the patriots ... this 2005 7th round draft pick had not started a football game since his chatsworth high school days ... enter matt cassel ... matt started 15 games ... the patriots finished the season 11-5 ... matt cassel was a big part of 11 patriots wins ... 21 touchdowns <> 11 interceptions <> 3,693 yards ... matt cassel was not the reason new england ended last season the 1st team to win 11 games and not make the playoffs

early in february new england used it's franchise tag on free agent to be matt cassel ... that move guaranteed matt $14.65 million for 1 year with the patriots ... on march 1st ... the 3rd day of this year's free agency signing period ... new england traded matt cassel and his guaranteed $14.65 salary to the kansas city chiefs for a 2nd round draft pick (34th overall) ... in mid july scott pioli and the kansas city chiefs signed matt cassel to a 6-year, $63 million ($28 million guaranteed) contract

some would comment that bernard pollard ... the man who took out tom brady ... made matt cassel a $63 million dollar man ... i would suggest bernard pollard's unfortunate hit on tom brady's knee opened an opportunity for a loyal, bright, hard working company man ... who seized the moment and made the absolute best of the opportunity ... and made himself a $63 million dollar man ... now matt cassel and bernard pollard are teammates in kansas city ... thank you matt cassel for leading the patriots through a challenging 2008 to a successful conclusion ... and best wishes for much success out in kansas city (as long as it is not against the patriots)

since the day matt cassel was drafted ... comparisions to tom brady have been made ... one i'd make ... each just seems to know the right things to say ... and each says it well ... click to listen to the nfl network's preseason interview of matt cassel